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jueves, 29 de enero de 2015

Does the supply and demand law rule the olive oil market?


Spain: First producer of the world

Spain is by far the main producer of oilve oil in the world. Our country leads the ranking of producing nations with around 55% of the worldwide olive harvest.
 
Nevertheless, since the southern Spain went through a drought, last crop here went down to 825.000 tn, meaning only almost 50% of the Spanish harvest we had last year (2013).

Everyone who is familiar with this sector knows that olive oil market is subject to enormous competition. Yet, the supply and demand law could temp the Spanish olive growers to increase their prices. 

 

Spain: aspiring to the title of ´first exporter of the world´

But, in the end,  they operate in a global scene so the said policy will surely bring them undesirable consequences.

With an eye on its eternal rival, Italy, in the last years Spanish olive oil packers have been struggling to conquer and strengthen markets abroad. And it is crucial a smart decision-making when you want to preserve a leading position, even if a poor crop comes -as it is the case lately-.

For instance, Spain is trying to be a leader in the United States olive oil market, which is the first importer of the world for this product (38% of the imports).

Evolution of total U.S. Olive Oil imports per country

Source: International Olive Council -http://www.internationaloliveoil.org/-
 
The 2012/13 season was not good and, as can be seen in the table above, Spain lost near to 10% of its market share in the United States. Reducing the supply and not keeping competitive prices has a price to pay too: a client thrown away. Playing in a such a competitive game simply means that customers have the upper hand.

Needless to say the effort and high costs of getting new customers, the broad consensus within the olive oil Spanish experts is that sacrifices must be done. In order to assure our competitive position in the world, the major packers/exporters are led to buy somewhere else around the Meditteranean sea at the expense of the  trade margins –mainly of the local growers-.  

lunes, 12 de enero de 2015

The crude oil price fall will improve the competitiveness of the Spanish agrifood sector



The current low crude oil prices are the big story for 2015.  As Kenneth Rogoff (Professor of Economics at Harvard University) pointed out, “they are a once-in-a-generation shock and will have huge reverberations [1]. And  it seems that this downward trend is expected to continue for the first half of the year. Today, Brent barrel stands at US$47 but some financial analysts forecast an even deeper plummeting down to US$30 in the coming months.

Source: www.euroinvestor.com

Leaving aside the causes of this phenomenom, the global fuel price slump can actually be seen as an opportunity for the ailing European economy. However, the effects will not be symmetrical: they will not be the same for every country in the EU; nor will they affect every economic sector to the same extent.

In particular, mediterranean countries like Spain, which economies are highly dependent on oil imports, are going to be the great winners of this tendency[2]. In the other hand, highly energy-intensive activities, just as in the case of freight transport, will benefit the most.  Therefore, agrifood Spanish companies will probably translate these lower transportation costs into more attractive prices for their clients.

Although the future is always uncertain and the behaviour of this commodity has an outstanding speculative component, the fact is that, at the present day, diesel fuel price is around 20% lower than a year ago. This situation cannot only be verified when one goes to the petrol stations but when the Commission's Energy Market Observatory statistics are consulted.



[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-07/oil-at-40-means-boon-for-some-no-ice-cream-for-others.html
[2] http://elcomercio.pe/economia/mundo/cuales-paises-ganan-y-cuales-pierden-petroleo-barato-noticia-1783352